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August 13, 2008

Hindsights

Filed under: Readings — Fei @ 12:43 am

Came up with a blog: Hindsights, loved it. It’s from Guy Kawasaki….

Ten hindsights? what do I learn from them?

#10: Live off your parents as long as possible.

Yah, it’s perfectly correct…. I delayed entering job market as long as possible… but I missed my chance to do more 🙁 (crying)… now when I meet anyone who’s in school… I advise him/her the same thing… :p looks like I’ve experienced a lot..

#9: Pursue joy, not happiness.

Heh? what does it mean? Do what you like… that’s most important… I won’t accept any boredom in life (borrowed from 4 hour work week)…

#8: Challenge the known and embrace the unknown.

Yah, I feel the same way… people are often so into what they are doing and lose the big picture… am I doing the same? hmm… I don’t know… maybe I’m also too into it… so…. I need a second opinion… and I rely on YOU to give me one…

#7: Learn to speak a foreign language, play a musical instrument, and play non-contact sports.

One foreign language.. done… though not quite good… music.. oh man… even though I’d love to learn…. I didn’t think so at age 4…. learning is HARD…. and consider the conditions in china at that time? …. sports… a…. I miss the good old days…

#6: Continue to learn.

No need to say anything… learning is quite enjoyable… can’t waste time…. no matter what… (it’s easy said than done).

#5: Learn to like yourself or change yourself until you can like yourself.

yup… yup…. like myself is important… be myself is equally important… and I need to work on it…

#4: Don’t get married too soon.

ha… seems I do it quite well…. I agree with what Guy said… knowing myself…. and accept the other person as is…. hmm… but I have my issues….

#3: Play to win and win to play.

don’t quite get what it means… but if I’m determined to play…. I’m into it… that’s what I feel…. but failure is also precious…. just hope it’s not too much…. and I expect to get up again…

#2: Obey the absolutes.

yah.. relative is an indication of being OLD….

#1: Enjoy your family and friends before they are gone.

oh man… there’s only one thing in the world cannot be bought…. it’s time…. how to make use of it? I wish I could do more… I wish I could enjoy more… I wish….

August 12, 2008

Readings

Filed under: Readings — Fei @ 11:33 pm

I sometimes read articles here and there. Just use this category to record the interesting ones, mostly putting a link to the article. Also,  if I have an opinion, I will draw a few words here… so don’t expect it to be very organized..

August 1, 2008

Stock market

Filed under: Economics — Fei @ 7:18 pm

It’s mid-year time, and I’d like to have a mid-year review of the direction of the stock market. I made some predictions at the end of January. It seems I’m quite lucky that they are more or less in-line with what really happened.

The stocks reached new lows in the middle of July, which was close to the far end of my prediction. I didn’t expect the rebound so strong after the March dip, however. In January, the market was not sure how serious the sub-prime mortgage issue was, stock dropped. In March, the market was shaken by the collapse of Bear Stearns, thus, retreated. The continuous write-downs of the financial institutions dampened their future prospect, which resulted the July retreat. I totally oversaw the impact of credit tightening, however.

Starting June to middle of July, the stocks decline steadily. It may be due to several factors: 1) Public has lost confidence of financial institutions (as I mentioned above). 2) The security tightening strategy has spread outside the realm of mortgage and banks. and 3) Higher oil and food price drive up inflation. We’ve only seen a small portion of it, however.

My prediction for the future economy direction is as follows:

Even though we still see new records of foreclosures, the sub-prime mortgage crisis is largely over.  We’ve also seen the worst of bank write-downs. The financial industry has bottomed (or almost) in July. However, the economy is at a critical point now. The crisis is at the verge of spreading outside the financial industry. It really depends whether it can be contained. The key indicators are consumer confidence index and jobless rate.

The consumer confidence index slide to the lowest point in 16 years in June, and held steady in July. To me, it is a good sign that the economy has bottomed. It is mainly because consumer is the end of the “economic” chain. The index usually reacts to crisis several quarters after the real cause. When consumers feel the pressure, the market has already digested the crisis and absorbed most of the pain. Thus, it’s a good time to get into the market.

The jobless rate, however, is not very optimistic. In today’s news (08/01/08), the jobless rate climbed to a four-year high. Not a good sign. It may mean the consumer confidence index staying at the low end for some time. The economy is not due for a rebound anytime soon.

Looking at the market, however, I don’t see any real reason people should worry about further retreat. In my opinion, market panic on the mortgage and credit is over reacted. The panic keeps the stock from
rebounding, but it won’t hold for long. The real enemy, is still the inflation. In January, I predicted that we would see the impact of inflation around this time. I was mistaken. The bulk impact has not arrived yet (It takes longer time for inflation to accumulate strength). On the good side, however, the inflation may not be as serious as I originally thought. The recent retreat of oil price is a good sign. I don’t see any support for such high oil prices. However, Bernanke is in a tough job fighting inflation. He cannot simply raise overnight interest rate because of its adverse impact on financial industry. What other weapon can he utilize?

In my opinion, the stocks will walk sideways till the end of the year. 2009 will be a good year for stocks and I’m looking forward to that.

Well, I will see how wrong I am in half a year.

May 13, 2008

生命三角——地震求生(地震求生技巧,大家可以学习一下)

Filed under: Freestyle — Fei @ 8:58 pm

A friend forwarded to me… maybe useful…
—————————————————————

My name is Doug Copp. I am the Rescue Chief and Disaster Manager of the American Rescue Team International (ARTI), the world\\\’s most experienced rescue team. The information in this article will save lives in an earthquake.

我的名字叫Doug Copp。我是世界上最有经验的救援小组—美国国际救援小组(ARTI)的首席救援者,也是灾难部的经理。本文中以下信息能在地震中挽救生命。

I have crawled inside 875 collapsed buildings, worked with rescue teams from 60 countries, founded rescue teams in several countries, and I am a member of many rescue teams from many countries. I was the United Nations expert in Disaster Mitigation (UNX051 -UNIENET) for two years. I have worked at every major disaster in the world since 1985, except for simultaneous disasters.

我和曾经来自60多个不同国家成立的各种救援小组一起工作过,曾在875个倒塌的建筑物里爬进爬出。在联合国灾难减轻(UNX051 -UNIENET)小组中我担任了任期两年的专家。从1985年至今,除非同时发生了多个灾祸,我几乎参与了每一次重大的救援工作。

In 1996 we made a film which proved my survival methodology to be correct. The Turkish Federal Government, City of Istanbul, University of Istanbul, Case Productions and ARTI cooperated to film this
practical, scientific test.

在1996 年,我们用我创立的而且被证明是正确的方法制作了一部电影。土耳其政府、伊斯坦布尔市、伊斯坦布尔大学、及ARTI联合制作了这部科学研究性的影片。

We collapsed a school and a home with 20 mannequins inside. Ten mannequins did \\”duck and cover,\\” and ten mannequins I used in my \\”triangle of life\\” survival method.

我们人为地摧毁了一座学校,和一个里面有20 个人体模特的房屋。十个人体模特用”蹲下和掩护”的方法,而另外十个模特使用我的”生命三角”的求生方法。

After the simulated earthquake collapse we crawled through the rubble and entered the building to film and document the results.

模拟地震发生后,我们通过倒塌的碎石慢慢进入了建筑物,并拍摄和记录了结果。

The film, in which I practiced my survival techniques under directly observable, scientific conditions, relevant to building collapse, showed there would have been zero percent survival for those doing duck and cover. There would likely have been 100 % survivability for people using my method of the \\”triangle of life.\\” This film has been seen by millions of viewers on television in Turkey and the rest
of Europe, and it was seen in the USA, Canada and Latin America on the TV program Real TV.

在一个在可直接观察到的而且科学的条件下,这部电影拍摄了我使用的求生技术。结果显示那些用”蹲下和和掩护” 方法的人存活率会是零,而那些使用”生命三角”的人能够达到100%的存活率。上百万的人已经在土耳其和欧洲的其他地方,还有美国、加拿大和拉丁美洲的电视节目里看到过这部片子。

The first building I ever crawled inside of was a school in Mexico City during the 1985 earthquake. Every child was under their desk. Every child was crushed to the thickness of their bones. They could
have survived by lying down next to their desks in the aisles. It was obscene, unnecessary and I wondered why the children were not in the aisles. I didn\\\’t at the time know that the children were told to hide under something.

我曾进入的第一个建筑物是 在1985 年墨西哥地震中的一个学校。每个孩子都在课桌底下。每个孩子都被压扁了。他们如果能在走道里挨着他们的课桌躺下,就有生还的希望。我不知道为什么孩子不在走道里。那时,我不知道孩子们被教导要躲在某物体的下面。

Simply stated, when buildings collapse, the weight of the ceilings falling upon the objects or furniture inside crushes these objects, leaving a space or void next to them. This space is what I call the
\\”triangle of life\\”. The larger the object, the stronger, the less it will compact. The less the object compacts, the larger the void, the greater the probability that the person who is using this void for
safety will not be injured.

简单地说,当建筑物倒塌时,落在物体或家俱上的屋顶的重力会撞击这些物体,使得靠近它们的地方留下一个空间。这个空间就是被我称作的”生命三角”。物体越大,越坚固,它被挤压的余地就越小。而物体被挤压得越小,这个空间就越大,
于是利用这个空间的人免于受伤的可能性就越大。

The next time you watch collapsed buildings, on television, count the \\”triangles\\” you see formed. They are everywhere. It is the most common shape, you will see, in a collapsed building. They are
everywhere. I trained the Fire Department of Trujillo (population 750,000) in how to survive, take care of their families, and to rescue others in earthquakes.

下次,你在电视里观看倒塌的建筑物时,数一数这些形成的”三角”。你会发现到处都有这些三角。在倒塌的建筑物里,这是最常见的形状。几乎到处都有。我培训 Trujillo (人口约为750,000的地方)的消防部门,教导人们如何求生,如何照顾他们的家人,以及如何在地震中援救他人。

The chief of rescue in the Trujillo Fire Department is a professor at Trujillo University. He accompanied me everywhere. He gave personal testimony: \\”My name is Roberto Rosales. I am Chief of Rescue in
Trujillo. When I was 11 years old, I was trapped inside of a collapsed building. My entrapment occurred during the earthquake of 1972 that killed 70,000 people. I survived in the \\”triangle of life\\” that
existed next to my brother\\\’s motorcycle. My friends who got under the bed and under desks were crushed to death …I am the living example of the \\”triangle of life\\”. My dead friends are the example
of \\”duck and cover\\”.

Trujillo 消防部门的救援总负责人是Trujillo大学的教授。他陪伴我同行,他说:”我叫Roberto Rosales,我是Trujillo的首席救援者。我11岁时,我被陷在一幢倒塌的建筑物里。就是发生在1972年的那场地震中,当时有70,000人死亡。我利用我哥哥摩托车旁的”生命三角”保住了生命。我的朋友们,那些躲在床下,桌子下的人都死了。(他列出了这些人的姓名、地址……)。我可以称作是 “生命三角”的活生生的例子,而我那些朋友是”蹲下和掩护”的例子。

Tips from Doug Copp:

Doug Copp的提示:

1) Everyone who simply \\”ducks and covers\\” WHEN BUILDINGS COLLAPSE is crushed to death — Every time, without exception. People who get under objects, like desks or cars, are always crush.

当建筑物倒下时,每个只是简单地”蹲下和掩护”的人都被压死了,每次,毫无例外。而那些躲逃到物体,如桌子,或汽车下躲避的人也总是受到了些伤害。

2) Cats, dogs and babies all naturally often curl up in the fetal position. You should too in an earthquake. It is a natural safety/survival instinct. You can survive in a smaller void. Get next
to an object, next to a sofa, next to a large bulky object that will compress slightly but leave a void next to it.

猫,狗和小孩子在遇到危险的时候,会自然地蜷缩起身体。地震时,你也应该这么做。这是一种安全的本能。而且你在一个很小的空间里就可以做到。靠近一个物体,一个沙发,或一个大件,它仅受到了略微的挤压,但在靠着它旁边的地方留下了一个空间。

3) 3) Wooden buildings are the safest type of construction to be in during an earthquake. The reason is simple: the wood is flexible and moves with the force of the earthquake. If the wooden building does
collapse, large survival voids are created. Also, the wooden building has less concentrated, crushing weight. Brick buildings will break into individual bricks. Bricks will cause many injuries but less squashed bodies than concrete slabs.

在地震中,木质建筑物最牢固。木头具有弹性,并且与地震的力量一起移动。如果木质建筑物倒塌了,会留出很大的生存空间。而且,木质材料密度最小,重量最小。砖块材料则会破碎成一块块更小的砖。 砖块会造成人员受伤,但是,被砖块压伤的人远比被水泥压伤的人数则要少得多。

4) If you are in bed during the night and an earthquake occurs, simply roll off the bed. A safe void will exist around the bed.

如果晚上生发了地震,而你正在床上。你只要简单地滚下床。在床的周围会形成一个安全的空间。

5) If an earthquake happens while you are watching television and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the fetal position next to a sofa, or large chair.

如果地震发生了,而你正在看电视,不能迅速地从门或窗口逃离,那就在靠近沙发,或椅子的旁边躺下,然后蜷缩起来。

6) Everybody who gets under a doorway when buildings collapse is killed. How? If you stand under a doorway and the door jam falls forward or backward you will be crushed by the ceiling above. If the
door jam falls sideways you will be cut in half by the doorway. In either case, you will be killed!

当大楼倒塌时,很多人在门口死亡了。怎么回事?如果你站在门框下,当门框向前或向后倒下时,你会被头顶上的屋顶砸伤。如果门框向侧面倒下,你会被压在当中, 所以,不管怎么样,你都会受到致命伤害!

7) Never go to the stairs. The stairs have a different \\”moment of frequency\\” (they swing separately from the main part of the building). The stairs and remainder of the building continuously bump into each other until structural failure of the stairs takes place. The people who get on stairs before they fail are chopped up by the stair treads – horribly mutilated. Even if the building doesn\\\’t collapse,
stay away from the stairs. The stairs are a likely part of the building to be damaged. Even if the stairs are not collapsed by the earthquake, they may collapse later when overloaded by fleeing people. They should always be checked for safety, even when the rest of the building is not
damaged.

千万不要走楼梯,楼梯与建筑物摇晃的频率不同(他们和建筑物的主体部分分别晃动)。楼梯和大楼的结构物发生不断地碰撞,直到楼梯发生构造问题。人在楼梯上时,会被楼梯的台阶割断,这是很恐怖的毁伤!就算楼梯没有倒塌,也要远离楼梯。楼梯就像大楼的一样会被损坏。哪怕不是因为地震而倒,还会因为承受过多的人群而坍塌。所以,我们应该始终首先检查楼梯的安全,甚至建筑物的其他部分并没有被损坏。

8) Get Near the Outer Walls Of Buildings Or Outside Of Them If Possible. It is much better to be near the outside of the building rather than the interior. The farther inside you are from the outside perimeter of the building the greater the probability that your escape route will be blocked.

尽量靠近建筑物的外墙或离开建筑物。靠近墙的外侧远比内侧要好。你越靠近建筑物的中心,你的逃生路径被阻挡的可能性就越大。

9) People inside of their vehicles are crushed when the road above falls in an earthquake and crushes their vehicles; which is exactly what happened with the slabs between the decks of the Nimitz Freeway. The victims of the San Francisco earthquake all stayed inside of their vehicles. They were all killed. They could have easily survived by getting out and sitting or lying next to their vehicles, says the
author. Everyone killed would have survived if they had been able to get out of their cars and sit or lie next to them. All the crushed cars had voids 3 feet high next to them, except for the cars that had
columns fall directly across them.

当发生地震时,在车内逃生的人会因路边坠落的物体砸伤,这正是Nimitz Freeway的路上所发生的事情。San Francisco地震的无辜受害者都呆在车内。其实,他们可以简单地离开车辆, 靠近车辆坐下,或躺在车边就可以了。所有被压垮的车辆旁边都有一个3 英尺高的空间,除非车辆是被物体垂直落下。

10) I discovered, while crawling inside of collapsed newspaper offices and other offices with a lot of paper, that paper does not compact. Large voids are found surrounding stacks of paper.

我发现,在报社或办公室里堆有很多报纸的地方,通常会好些,因为报纸不受挤压。你在纸堆旁可找到一个比较大的空间。

May 12, 2008

OMG

Filed under: Freestyle — Fei @ 10:18 pm

中国今年真是多灾多难。想起年初的时候参加了一个易经的讲座,那位算命先生就说中国今年小灾不断。想起大灾小说的传统,也算应验了吧。。。

当时他还作了以下预测:
今夏高温,南方瘟疫横行。—– 过两个月再看吧。
北方干旱? —- 记不清了。。。
西北可能会有动乱,中央政府平乱。 —– 好像是西南吧。。。不过也可能没到。。。
国际关系紧张。 —– 有没有?
希拉里民主党选举后劲足。 —– 好像玄了吧。。。不过他也只说是感觉,不是算出来的。。。

其他的就记不住了。。。好像忠告是六月七月不要在中国旅行,特别是去南方。。。

hmm。。。听其言观其行吧。。。

bless China….

May 1, 2008

抄袭

Filed under: Freestyle — Fei @ 12:03 am

想来想去,这篇文章还是用中文写吧。。。
刚才和一位朋友聊天,他说到又发现一个中国学校网站抄袭普林斯顿网站的设计。这次是上海大学悉尼工商学院


朋友已经给那网站发信,希望他们能够亡羊补牢。。。想两年前就有中国网站抄袭普林斯顿的设计,那次是人民大学哲学系。。。

当时还闹得挺大,上了Daily Princetonian。。。真是丢脸呀。。。也不知这些学校为什么用黑色和橙色,也不是他们的颜色。。。现在Princeton的主页又重新设计了。。。不过前几年去过Princeton的人都会一眼看出那设计是Princeton的。。。当时的设计是:

注:我后两张图片是取自Daily Princetonian的。。。

April 28, 2008

政治呀政治

Filed under: 往事如风 — Fei @ 1:08 am

最近政治成了一个热门话题,从西藏暴乱到奥运火炬传递,从中国人感知到西方媒体传播。这一切一切都发展得太快。前些时候晚上看了看youtube的一些视频,读了读anti-cnn的一些观点,突然想到,我自已也曾卷入政治的漩涡中。

那时我在Princeton研究生会的Assembly里。我在里面两年,第一年作为ACSS的delegate,没有投票权。第二年作为ELE的representative,有投票权。Princeton研究生会的组成是这样的。每个系或program选一名representative组成Assembly,对所有研究生负责。每年全体研究生选出ExecutiveCommittee,对Assembly负责。Assembly每个月开一次会,讨论些日常事务。其他时候就在email list里讨论些乱七八糟的事。

要说明的是,在研究生会的时候是我比较黑暗的时候,那时对有些 事情的做法还是有待商讨的。这也算是个经验吧。我在Assembly里是典型的少数派,很多意见和美国人相左。记得有一次我就捅了一下马蜂窝,因为我提到台湾了。那是研究院第一次出了一本facebook,里面有一年级所有学生根据state/country分类。我扫了第一眼就发觉是politically incorrect。那分类把香港和台湾单独的列出来了。我这点政治敏感性还是有的。后来研究生会要我们给facebook提意见时我就说了出来。其实我的想法很简单,每个人的政治认同是个人的事,我从来没想强迫别人相信什么,我只是想把分类改成political neutral一点,避开政治,就行了。我当时预料到Assembly里会有阻力,所以我说的也挺有技巧,主要说香港,最后稍微带了一句,台湾也一样。还suggest了改变的方法:把分类变成state/country/region就行了,其他都不需要变,这样每个人可以有自己理解的余地。最后,为了分散注意,我在email里还加了另外一件不相干的事。可没料到的是,我的手段一点都没起到作用。整个Assembly就炸开了锅。好些人旗帜鲜明的反对,有人把西藏也抬出来,和巴勒斯坦比较,说是occupied territory。这也是我始料不及的。过了一会有些稍微理智一点的人出来打圆场(他们有些人的想法其实也和反对的人差不多,就是没有说出来)。东说说西说说,就是没人赞成加一个region(Miss Man除外)。等到事情稍微冷了一点的时候,我又写了一封信,对每个人的发言做了个rebuttal。这件事就不了了之了。第二年facebook倒是看到结果了,比第一年更糟,分类还是state/country,香港被并到中国里了,台湾还是单列。。。之后的事我就不说了。。。

再说一件我直接接触的西方民主的事吧,是关于GSG的By-law的事。Princeton的研究生会最初成立于1989年,那时叫做GSU。后来感觉叫union名称不好,2000年就重写了Constitution和By-law,改名为GSG。GSG的Constitution和By-law写得很好。我在写ACSS的Constitution的时候借鉴了很多。GSG里有一个veteran。他当年在Constitution筹备小组呆过。我第一次见他是我研一第二学期开学注册时在Dillon Gym门口,他要ratify新的Constitution。后来我进入GSG后就一直看他是officer。他其实人挺好的,就是有些理念和我不一样。那时GSG的officer都是全体研究生通过general election选出来的。不过这么多年general election也显出些问题。有一年选举,这位veteran自己钻了By-law的空子(因为那是他自己写出来的),先是declare candidacy,然后看别人选了,自己就withdraw,又发现那人withdraw了,自己又declare conditional candidacy。搞得很复杂,而By-law也没有写怎么办。让election committee的人很难办。他高票当选后Assembly就很恼火,逼他辞职,因为那时他已经不在Princeton了。其实他自己也不在乎当不当选,他只是想占一个名额,防止什么有”ill will”的人当选。那年确实有一个人竞选GSG的理念和别人很不一样,被他称为”ill will”。他在resignation statement里就说,他要abolish general election,用parliamentary election替代,以防止”ill will”的人。后来他又和其他两个人一起(都是veteran)draft一个新的By-law,要fix the holes in the By-law。新的By-law draft出来之后我一看,果然要abolish general election,虽然By-law里写得很好看,加了很多粉饰,留了general election的可能,可事实上是行不通的。可这怎么行,完全不符合我的理念。(其实我并不是总是prefer general election的,像中国现阶段我就觉得parliamentary election就好。很多事都是依情况而定的。GSG进行parliamentary election是完全不符合实际情况的。)Assembly的实际情况是,没有什么人会认真读新旧By-law的。draft的那些人都是老手。没人跳出来的话Assembly也就是举举手,作个橡皮图章。可他们没有料到我早已经把By-Law读得底朝天了。于是我就跳了出来(后悔呀。。。)我写了一封20k的email,列举了种种parliamentary election的弊端,不符合Princeton的校情。那一方面就反驳,然后我再反驳,等等等等。我很喜欢写长文章的(虽然写得不好),这可以从我的blog里看出来。可当我看到对方写了封100k的email,我无语了,甘拜下风。其实我也不认为他们有什么阴谋,他们只是想防止理念很不同的人当选,也不相信全体研究生的判断力。换句话说就是想在体制内选举,使他们的理念得以延续。。。投票那天Assembly会议室里挤了很多人,我拿着我那破破的手提电脑,去的有些晚,看见一个座位前上放了一个pizza,不管他。把位子占了。后来那人回来,发现我鸠占鹊巢,但又看我气势汹汹的。乖乖的说,啊,你就坐在这儿吧。就跑到后面去了。其实那时我已经从ELE的representative上退下来了。我特地找了个ACSS的proxy,在离开GSG前再钻次牛角尖。会议上好多人都赞同adopt新的By-law,也有好多人反对。最后打了个折中,要在新的By-law基础上修改,保留generalelection。也算部分达到我的目的吧。如果我之前不摆事实讲道理的话,可能什么问题都没有就通过了。。。。

我在GSG里很明显的感到东西方文化的差异。GSG里很多事情都带着双重标准的,但这些双重标准都是民主产生的,很多人都感觉不到。Assembly里有些民主也是有局限的,一些时候就少数人主导大家的意见。在东方,很多事情都是先向组织汇报,由组织决定做什么,再服从组织决定。在西方,很多事情都是先lobby,lobby好后再提出议案通过。GSG有时做决定只考虑自己,而不考虑其他组织的实际情况(像By-law那件事)。中国有时考虑问题要照顾到弱势群体,替他们着想。在美国就看不见,你自己不speak out,你就被ignore(这在GSG里很明显)。另一点明显不同的是,东方人对自己的主义看得很重,很理想化,为了自己的主义可以在议会里大打出手(象韩国、台湾、日本一样)。西方对union看得很重,很现实,总是考虑现在做什么对自己最有利。就是不同的政见在话语上都要说得文绉绉的,表面文章要做得很好。这也是我在GSG里受到的最大的一个教训。我在GSG见到的那些民主的trick在中国的人大、政协也都有表现。给我感觉其民主的本质没有什么区别。民主只是一种政治制度,不是什么包治百病的仙丹。很多事情都是人做出来的。民主的含义也远远超出了一人一票,也有很多dirty politics,只是规则不同罢了。民主有优点也有缺点,需要辩证的看,要符合实际情况。。。

政治真是无处不在。让我感到庆幸的是,我做ACSS president的时候在校内基本没有受到政治的干扰。board里的人都很热情,讨论问题很民主,需要决定的事都投票决定,成为组织决定。这也是我后来决定写个Constitution的原因之一。但在校外,就没有那么幸运了。很多事情都可以看到政治的影子。举例说吧。2002年末中国电信突然大幅提高国际长途的电话费,学生打电话回家突然变得很贵,当时Caltech ACSS发起petition,抗议中国电信。ACSS就受到外部干扰,想阻止Princeton endorse the petition。其目的竟然是看不得Caltech 来主导这次petition(他们有他们的私利在里面)。但后来ACSS还是集体决定endorse了。转年美国签证突然变得很难,很多同学回国被security check好几个月。当时各个学校的ACSS都有所行动。Princeton主要是向学校反映情况。后来Tilghman专门去参议院听证visa的事,成为第一位向政府高层反映情况严重的高校校长。不久后我见到Tilghman时专门感谢她为international students做的事。有些学校举行网上签名,petition。Princeton ACSS也是能endorse的就endorse。可很少有人知道背后有些人(少数人吧)为petition的主导权争得很凶。。。有一次Princeton ACSS的一位member去DC去见参议院中国事务小组的chair,一位senior senator,以ACSS的名义写了一封petition。不久有人竟然打电话询问,要我警惕一小簇无恐天下不乱的人以ACSS的名义为非作歹。他竟然也有一份当时petition的原件,要我确认没有被私自改动过。。。我当时就想#$@!%。2003年SARS很严重,Princeton ACSS组织了捐款活动。那时候真是谨小慎微,严格符合学校章程,和研究生院和国际中心经常通气,办得还是很成功的。。。可有些别的地方的捐款行动却变成了闹剧,比如捐的钱突然变没了。。啊。。。社会真是很复杂呀。。。我真是很怀恋在ACSS的时光,怀恋一起工作过的朋友。特别庆幸ACSS没有被政治污染。。。

对我影响最深的其实是那年纽约学联的内乱。我对纽约学联的事是能躲就躲,但还是目睹了学联的内部矛盾越来越深,最后发展成了分裂。。。其中真是看到了一些人手段的阴险,民主的虚伪。。。真是应验了一句老话:政治斗争是残酷的。也应验了另一句老话:政治上没有永远的朋友(敌人),只有永远的利益。。。

离开Princeton之后我就遵循一句格言:远离政治,珍爱生命。政治呀政治。

P.S.This article is purely from my perspective. It may be very biased. If you want to know what really happened during that time, dig it out yourself.

April 6, 2008

The Secret

Filed under: Freestyle — Fei @ 10:42 pm

The Secret“,is a movie, is a book. It is the #1 bestseller in New York Times. Recently, I heard it over, and over, and over again. Out of curiosity, I checked out what it was. The book is about the law of attraction. In a sentence, the book describes the phenomenon of “you get what you want”. If you want something, you just need to think think think think about it.. think really really hard, and you will get it. Either you will try very hard to get it yourself, or something miraculously will happen. If you think it positively, you will get it positively. If you think it negatively, you will get it negatively. If you don’t want something, however, you still get that thing you want to avoid. It is the power of your mind.

My first impression was… gosh, they stole my idea… I didn’t form the exact “law”, but I had something quite similar… I didn’t think it original or novel however. To me, this theory is not well crafted. It tries to describe some observations with some fragmented, superficial reasoning. Actually, the phenomena have been observed for thousands of years and were theorized by many religions. For the religions I studied, Christianity and Buddhism, both have their own explanations. Christians attribute it to the power of God. Christians pray, trying to make a connection with the God, wishing something to happen. Sometimes God will indeed show His power. On the other hand, Buddhists attribute it to the power of Karma. Depending on the Karma you accrued in your this life and previous lives, you will or will not get what you want.

I, on the other hand, have my own theory. I have a theory, or more precisely, a hypothesis, on the formation of the universe. It tries to make connections among different religions and make them compatible. To me, different religions are just different views of the same “reality” from different angels. I always want to write my theory down. Actually, I have finished part of it and sent to a few friends to review…. but because of my recent interests in my new business, it is virtually put on hold now.

Of course, “the secret” is superstitious. It cannot be fully explained by the current scientific means, and thus, is not qualified as a “law”. However, even for believers of strong atheism (naturalism), this book may have some enlightening effect: think positively, focus on your dreams. After all, everything has two sides. It depends on what you take on. I like what Lu Xun said almost a century ago: You shouldn’t refuse something without even looking into it. You don’t know what you are refusing. What you can do instead, is to take it, study it, absorb what you consider beneficial, and discard what you consider not.

April 1, 2008

Business Opportunities

Filed under: 往事如风 — Fei @ 10:09 pm

Recently, as many of my friends have already known, I partnered with several friends and started a sideline business. The business is for a network marketing company. For most of my friends, their first reactions are the same: how can you do this, why do you do this? I’m not going to hide anything here, nor will I try to convince you that it is a good opportunity. Before I join the company, I’ve already known the general reputation of such companies in many people’s minds, including many of my friends. Everyone has his own opinions on such companies. I’m well aware of the risks involved. The more important questions are: how do you manage your risks, and what do you expect to get out of it. It’s still very premature to reveal my exact reasons to join. Here I just want to raise to your attention why you might want to open your mind and start something similar.

I’m not going to lecture you on the issues I deem important. Instead, if you are interested in reading, it doesn’t hurt reading one of the New York Times #1 best seller: “Rich Dad, Poor Dad” by Robert Kiyosaki. It is a very popular book and I presume many of you have already read it, or at least heard about it. The more important thing is, what do you get out of the book? After you read this best seller book, if you are still interested, though you might have some questions, you can read his second #1 best seller in New York Times: “Cashflow Quadrant”. If you see some interesting points from his second book, why not playing a game Robert invented, the cashflow games. At last, if you agree with at least some of his points, here’s the last book I recommend you to read for now: “The Business School for People Who Like Helping People”.

Frankly, as many rich and famous people, Robert Kiyosaki is a controversial person. Many people attack his ideas, his methodologies. I don’t endorse all his ideas, instead, I reserve my opinions on many of the principles he advocates. However, I do agree with his arguments on mindset and value systems. You, after reading those books, may derive your own opinions. Maybe you don’t like his ideas at all; maybe you don’t care his categorizations; or maybe, you want to try something different. There is no right or wrong. Different people have different paths, different value systems, different trade-offs. But at least, you need to know the options in order to make a conscious decision.

Anyways, I will say no more. This article is not trying to convince you anything, not trying to sell you anything. As I said to some of my friends already, I’m not going to hide anything. At the very least, it is just to let you know what I’m doing now, and raise your alarm bell when I talk with you.

You can visit two websites a few of my friends created if you want to know a little bit more:
www.ProDesigner150.com
www.BridgeToYourHealth.com

Well, let me know what you think if you are ever interested in reading the books I mentioned above. I’m always interested in hearing from others.

p.s. My adventure may turn out to be a total disaster eventually. This message only reflects my thoughts now and now only (and I’d like to record it down). However, I’d like to cite a few words from Robert’s “Cashflow Quadrant” : Many people will not head down the street until all the lights are green. That’s why they don’t go anywhere.

February 20, 2008

奇事

Filed under: 往事如风 — Fei @ 11:32 pm

我这个人是很superstitious的。有时候觉得自己能够改变未来,至少能够预测未来。有时就对未来做一些无聊的猜测,猜中了呢就觉得自己很准,猜不中呢就觉得自己在subconscious其实是猜中的。反正怎么说都是我对。而且我觉得所有人都有这个能力,只是没有发掘出来罢了。

其实去年我经历了一件很奇特的事情。somehow confirm 了我的superstition。那事情发生过后我讲给了几个朋友听。最近又告诉了一位朋友,发现自己很多细节都忘记了。唉,就写下来吧。虽然知道是要挨骂的。。。。

那是一件很不幸的事。去年五月九号,中午,我正在Toastmaster meeting里,突然收到沈大叔的电话。他这个人,一年也想不到给我打个电话,怎么会给我打电话呢?出去一听,是一个噩耗。。。Mabel突然去世了,当时就觉得天旋地转。下午给Jim打电话,什么话也说不出来,只是一个劲的哭。这里插一句,我这个人还是挺感情的,平时也看不出来,可感情到了的时候也不会压抑自己。就像我坐过山车总是叫出声一样。想叫就叫,想哭就哭。怕什么。。。。(不许笑)。。。

我也是不善于改变的。下班后竟然还去 Stanford参加一个讲座,因为那是计划好的。。。当时开车的时候真是惊险,也不知自己怎么想的,差点出车祸。。。看来精神不稳的时候真不能开车。。。讲座回来开车时给刘老师打个电话,问问他的计划。他说他要开车回Princeton参加Mabel的葬礼。我想我是不是也回去一趟,参加葬礼,再看看朋友。回家后就查机票价格,发觉UA的飞机票还真不贵。。。不过当时看飞机行程的时候觉得感觉不太对。当时也没在意。后来打电话给我老板和我父母,征得他们的同意。就正式订机票了。

那时就发觉感觉不对在什么地方了。订去Princeton的飞机行程的时候还好,可订回来的的行程就 somehow总觉得有一种下坠的感觉。不管我选哪一趟飞机都是这个感觉,觉得很奇。当时就想,飞机会不会掉下来。我以前也坐过几十次飞机,订票的时候从来没有这个感觉。当时有一点犹豫是不是买飞机票。不过觉得根据这点就不回去也太说不通了,想想还说,订吧,要是会掉下来的话我也要用我的运气去把它 cancel掉。订票的时候就不把飞机掉不掉下来考虑在内(反正感觉都是要掉下来的)。而是想什么时候回来可以把在Princeton的计划都做完,就订了星期二下午回来的飞机。

订完了后看着那receipt就感觉下坠。眼睛一闭就看见飞机向下俯冲的画面。晚上睡觉的时候做了很多梦,都是飞机下掉的梦。。。而且全都是从Princeton回来的那趟飞机。对去Princeton那趟飞机一点感觉都没有。星期三如此,星期四也如此。那两天只要眼睛一闭就想到回来的飞机下坠,次数不下三四十次。当时想,得,掉就掉吧。但如果要我父母赶快来美国的话他们得有护照。。。当时护照在我这边。。。于是我星期五一早赶快把护照送到邮局用特快专递寄回去。还好是回来的时候掉,那时候护照应该就寄到了。。。

星期五晚上在等飞机的时候我觉得我的感觉很奇怪。就闭着眼睛拼命想,去的时候掉不掉?没啥感觉。。。去的时候掉不掉?还是没感觉。。。我还有意的picture去的飞机向下掉的画面,可觉得很费劲,脑子一松神,飞机又飞上去了。就怎么也弄不下来。可回来的飞机就不一样了,不用想要不要掉。只要一想到那趟飞机,就觉得要掉下来。脑子里就想像着托着那架飞机,不让它掉下来。可飞了才不会,就托不住了,总是要向下掉。。。。okay… that’s interesting… I thought…

到了Princeton之后事情就很多了,参加葬礼,见同学。。。很忙。。。好象是星期天的什么时候,我突然想起我怎么不觉得飞机会掉下来了呢?我就在脑子里问了我好几次:飞机会掉下来吗?什么感觉也没有。好吧。。。不掉就不掉吧。。。

星期二回来的时候时间很紧,赶火车快来不及了。满小姐还在电话里教我怎么翻墙从窗户上爬进她家拿我的行李。。。幸好火车还是赶上了。到飞机场的时候离飞机起飞的时候已经不远了。。我赶快去check-in。我一看电脑,heh?不对,怎么飞机是第二天早上的呢?那可不行。我立刻叫来航空公司的人,问怎么回事。。。她告诉我,飞机cancel了。。。就帮我转到Continental去了。。。手续都办好后我还不死心,问:why it was canceled? 回答道:mechanical problems。我坐过几十次飞机,第一次遇见飞机cancel了,还是因为机器故障。。。

okay,我还是没有坐那趟飞机。。。幸好问题发现的早。。。要不然就说不定真的掉下来了。。。去Continental的时候我也问自己好几次飞机会不会掉下来。。。答案都是否定的。。就放心的去了。。。。

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